本人用英文写的一篇台海问题论文，有兴趣的请进！
USA, PRC.The United States and America and the People’s Republic of China are both indeed two great nations and both their peoples have written glorious history and made prideful achievements. The significant historical thaw between the USA and the PRC could be traced back to 1972, when President Nixon made his famous visit to China. He did not only put a stop on the traditional US strategy toward China—total containment, he also opened up a whole new page in history. Most people on earth would probably agree that a healthy and constructive relation between the two giant nations is essential and critical to the prosperity and peace of the world. In fact, the two are each now the largest trade partner with each other; last year’s volume of trade between the two nations was over 100 billion USD and this number is increasing in an astonishing pace. Of course, tremendous economic reciprocal dependence is not the only important aspect between the USA and the PRC; the two countries also rely on each other in many world affairs. For example, recently, the PRC demands American support to prevent Taiwan’s partition from the Mainland, while the US wants the Chinese assistance to establish a denuclearized Korea Peninsula. Today, though many people are somewhat anxious that the issue of Taiwan could lead to a serious breakout or even a potential big war between the USA and PRC, however, if we take a closer inspection on this issue, we will find that it is almost impossible for the USA and the PRC to have a war.
Many Americans don’t understand why China wants to reunify, they simply thinks that the big China is bullying on the small Taiwan, and the big China just wants to take small Taiwan over. But the Chinese should not blame these American for that, because they should understand the fact that the word “independence” sounds extremely gracious to Americans, and it seems that to some of them, Independence should be supported no matter what, even though it is actually secession or a partition. While these Americans learn their history about how the Confederate States, in 1860’s, were engaging in seceding the Union and breaking America apart, they perhaps have no knowledge of the Chinese history. The Island of Taiwan was a originally a Province of the Dynasty of Qing(China’s last dynasty), but in 1894, the Empire of Japan had a war with China called the Sino-Japan JiaWu War, in which Japan defeated the entire Chinese fleet. After that war, the submissive, weak Chinese government at the time was forced to sign an unequal treaty called MaGuan Treaty, which allows the Empire of Japan to take over the Chinese Province of Taiwan. However, after the WWII, the Province of Taiwan was supposed to return to the Republic Of China(be careful, it’s not PRC yet, it’s ROC at the time) if there wasn’t a Chinese Civil War. Today, the island of Taiwan is still not a Nation; it is actually still an island Province of the Republic of China (mainland China is called PRC, Taiwan China is ROC)—Which had been driven away to the province of Taiwan when it lost the Chinese Civil War against the Chinese Communist Party. Today, in ROC’s constitution, it still states clearly that ROC includes all the Mainland Provinces as well as the Province of Taiwan. In fact today, many people in Taiwan province honors their Chinese roots, and are in favor of a reunification of the Mainland China; more than half of them, even those who don’t support a reunification are opposed to a partition, because more and more of them are starting to understand that Partitioning China is always going to be a political dream.
Even though there had been many Taiwan Strait crisis in the past, a war between the USA and the PRC over the Island of Taiwan is economically impossible. As mentioned before, sharing tremendous common economical interest would be the key factor to prevent a war, even though there are two major potential causes of war: one is the Law of US-Taiwan Relation to defend Taiwan when the mainland China invades, one is the recent Anti-Secession Law established by Beijing which legitimizes Beijing to reunify the mainland and the Island of Taiwan by “non-peaceful means” only if Taiwan declares independence proactively. But still, none of the two nations would want to provoke such a war, because a war between the two, could crucially mean that, all the trading would end immediately—all the Chinese imports from the USA such as cotton, computers, electronics, cars, airplanes et cetera and also all the American imports from the PRC such as all the inexpensive, good-quality day-to-day goods. This will, for sure, painfully hurt both countries’ economies as well as the world’s economy. This is why that the US has never supported and will never support the Taiwan Independence—if the USA pushes Taiwan to Independence, then it will have to take the obligation to fight the “Taiwan Independence War”, which means losing immense chunk of interest in both the mainland China as well as the Island of Taiwan. The US policy serves neither to the Chinese reunification nor to the Taiwan Independence; it serves to the American interests. On the contrary, if the US opposes the Taiwan Partition as what it’s doing now, instead of losing everything and fighting against a 1.4 billion people nation, it will be able to keep all the interest in mainland China and while gain great money from selling military weapons to Taiwan. Just like the US Secretary of State Rice said, “We are not pleased when either side does anything unilaterally to either try to change the status quo or to increase tensions," If we take a look at the Chinese modern history, we can see that it has not been easy at all for the Chinese to have such a exuberant economy today; the Chinese have put incredible amount of effort to achieve such a high political and economical position in the world today. The Chinese, of course, does not want to let it all fall apart again. If China attacks Taiwan in the first place, it would probably face great media pressure from all over the world and the mainstream public opinion would probably be demanding Beijing to stop invading. If China starts the war, a big number of the foreign investments within China would perhaps all go away. Even if Beijing wins the war eventually, China would possibly be facing huge world sanctions afterwards or even a new containment led by the US. Having a war simply does not match up to neither the Chinese interest nor the American interest. Therefore, as long as both the USA and the PRC constantly pressures on the ROC government to not move toward partition, there will not be a war.
[align=right][color=#000066][此贴子已经被作者于2005-9-2 5:05:36编辑过][/color][/align]
Despite the economical influence, it is still not militaristically possible for the USA and the PRC to have a war over Taiwan, because a war between the two great nations is too dangerous. Once a war starts, there will not be a winner without any “scratches” on itself. Once a war starts, it could possibly develop into a long-lasting war, a full-scaled war, or even a MAD if not handled properly. The best ending would be that one side maintains the war localized, conventional, and prevails in the short time, but that scenario would most likely occur in a war with small nations such as Afghanistan, and probably would not happen between two large nations, especially when both have deadly weapons, abundant men, substantial logistics, and most dangerously—nuclear weapons. That is also why the USA and the USSR—two nations with no economical ties and with much greater and more apparent abominations toward one another—never had any serious wars in 43 years of rivalry. Therefore, it ought to be incredibly hard for the USA and the PRC—two nations with great economical ties—to have a war that destroys everything. The main problem is actually in Taiwan. In order to continue their political dream,The government of ROC is constantly receiving the wrong signal from the US that the US will fight the Taiwan Independence War. The USA only promises to defend Taiwan, but does it really want to fight the Taiwan Independence War? The answer is absolutely no. To be blunt, even the “defending part” is very suspensive, let alone the fighting-for-independence part, because a nation’s promise to another is not like a company-to-company contract. There is no such thing as permanent promise by a nation to another; everything always changes as the interest changes. If we look at the war history of US after WWII, we would see that all the wars fought by the US, were at places where the American interest lies: Korean War—to prevent the spread of Communism or to contain USSR and China, Vietnam war—to prevent the “domino theory” become true and to contain China, Bay of Pigs invasion—to prevent communism around the Americas, Panama—to control Panama Canal, War in Iraqi and Afghanistan—to get rid of potential WOM and to gain wider access to oil etc. Therefore, it’s not hard to see that the US government only fights wars that will widen the American interest. Supposably, if the American gain in the Taiwan Independence War is less than what it will loss, then the US will simply not fight the war or will try hard to prevent such a war, just like when the US discovered that the loss in Vietnam was exceeding the gain, it withdrew the troops and abandoned the southern Vietnam who it once promised to help defeat the Viet Cong. The truth is that the American policy is always in favor of the American interest.
Strategically, the US main goal is to maintain its leadership in the world; therefore, it has to consider a lot of things carefully regarding the issue of Taiwan with China, for examples: Is there anyone else in the world that’s a threat to my leadership? Will losing Taiwan cause me to lose my leadership? Will keeping Taiwan keep my leadership? How much I have to sacrifice to have a war with China in order to keep Taiwan? Will I sacrifice less than what I gain or will I sacrifice more than I gain? Will anybody else usurp my leadership while I’m dealing with China? Will it develops into a long-lasting war or even a full-scaled war? Will keeping Taiwan mean undermining or even losing my leadership? If all my stamina is on Taiwan, will someone else seize opportunity to take advantage? Will I lose all the interest in China? Will my society agree with me to fight China? It’s simply not that easy for the US to declare a war on China, because so many questions need to be considered by the US government. Therefore, it’s safe to say that it’s pretty much impossible for the two countries to have a war. ...it's a bit diffcult for me to understand 天啊，，看不懂一点点啊，， bu dong !!
Actually, you really wrote an excellent article and I really appreciate it. quite nice
saved I add it to Collection!Good work!! 天啊，，看不懂! 用词还是不错的 "The United States and America" should be the united states of america
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